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土地利用演变特征及碳储量时空分布格局是中国“双碳”下重要的议题。现有研究忽视区域发展政策及需求，极少关注未来土地利用变化对生态系统碳储量的影响。研究分析了黔中城市群2005—2020年土地利用类型的变化特征，利用PLUS模型预测了2035年黔中城市群四个情景（自然增长、耕地保护、生态优先和低碳经济）下的土地利用演变格局，并采用InVEST模型对碳储存的分布特征和响应机制进行了评估和预测。结果表明：（1）2005—2020年黔中城市群土地利用类型主要为耕地和林地；耕地呈减少趋势，林地呈增减趋势，建设用地不断增加。（2）生态优先情景下，林地和草地增长幅度最大，生态系统更加稳定。但考虑到研究区域在“十四五”规划中的定位及发展目标，低碳经济情景更适合该区域的发展。（3）2005—2020年间建设用地的扩张使得碳储量减少了约20.73 Tg。生态优先情景下碳储量减少速度最慢，其次是低碳经济情景。低碳经济情景是以黔中城市群为代表的地区发展的推荐选择。
Abstract：Under China's “dual carbon” policy, the characteristics of land use evolution and the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of carbon storage are crucial issues. Current research overlooks regional development policies and requirements, and does not adequately consider the effects of future land use changes on carbon storage in ecosystems. The PLUS model is used to predict the land use evolution under four scenarios(natural growth, farmland protection, ecological priority, and low-carbon economy) in the central Guizhou urban agglomeration in 2035. The InVEST model is used to evaluate and predict the distribution characteristics and response mechanisms of carbon storage. The data suggests that:(1) From 2005 to 2020, farmland and forest land were the primary land use types in the Qianzhong urban agglomeration: Farmland decreased while forest land and construction land increased.(2) According to the ecological priority scenario, the forest and grassland growth rate is the highest, resulting in a more stable ecosystem. However, given the research area's development goals in the 14th Five Year Plan, the low-carbon economic scenario is more appropriate.(3) Between 2005 and 2020, the expansion of construction land led to a reduction of approximately 20. 73 Tg in carbon storage. The rate of carbon storage reduction is slowest in the ecological priority scenario, followed by the low-carbon economic scenario, according to multiple scenarios. The low-carbon economic scenario is a recommended option for the development of urban agglomerations in the western region, such as the Qianzhong urban agglomeration.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.14188/j.2095-6045.20240609
中图分类号:F301.2;X171.1
引用信息:
[1]詹庆明,林凯,舒禹龙,等.黔中城市群土地利用演变及对碳储量的影响研究[J].测绘地理信息,2026,51(03):30-37.DOI:10.14188/j.2095-6045.20240609.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金（52078389,51378399,51878515）; 大学生创新创业训练计划项目（X202010500115）
2025-12-01
2025-12-01
2025-12-01